We see some good signs here:
•The recession reduced lease company/fleet and retail new registrations greatly in 2008/9.
•This means 2-3 year old used car stock in 2011/12 will be in short supply as there are less vehicles to de-fleet.
•80% of 2-3 year old used stock is from leasing companies so it has a big impact.
•With used sales increasing and used stock reducing plus a poor September for new (compared with traditional levels) producing even less decent used stock, used prices are likely to rise further.
•Rising 2-3 used car prices plus good deals from manufacturers on new will mean the cost to change difference between used and new will narrow resulting in better chances for good sales people to convert used to new.
This looks like it will result see some increased showroom traffic and good chance for dealers to increase sales on used and push some of those into new with a lower difference in cost.
This has already happened in the LCV world with shortages of decent used and increases in new sales.